(MENAFN- Afghanistan Times) The United States overthrew end of 2001 the
Taliban regime as a reaction to the 11 September terroristic attacks on New
York and Washington - the starting point of the US-led War against Terror.
Simultaneously to the fights on the ground, the UN-led process for the
establishment of a new democratic government started in Bonn, Germany. Afghan
delegates from four different groups, with the Northern Alliance as the most significant
fraction, were present at the conference to lay the foundation for stable and
peaceful Afghanistan. The Taliban were the only political group that was not on
the negotiation table in Bonn. Declared as the supporters of US enemy number
one- Osama Bin Laden- the United States rejected to involve the Taliban in the
process.
At the end of the conference, the delegates
of all four groups agreed on the formation of a new interim government, led by
Hamid Karzai. Almost all involved national and international stakeholders
believed the Taliban are now part of history and have been eliminated from
Afghanistan's political scene and the battlefield for good- a miscalculation
with enormous consequences for Afghanistan and its international partners.
Two decades after the Bonn Conference
Political climate
Eighteen years after the Bonn conference,
the Taliban are controlling around 9 percent of the territory, and up to 40
percent the country's areas are identified as contested. Today, not only the
Eastern and Southern parts of the country but also the previously less
contested North suffers from increased insecurity.
Moreover, there are today not only the
Taliban but many other terroristic groups, such as ISIS active in Afghanistan,
leading to a deterioration of the already volatile security situation of the
country. Latest reports from the Afghan media indicate that the Afghan Security
Forces, despite their extraordinary moral and will to combat, have more and
more difficulties in coping with the situation on the battlefield, linked to
increased casualties and loss of territory. Lately, President Ghani himself
confirmed that 45,000 security forces had been killed since he had become
President in 2014.
Disunity and rivalries within the Afghan
government during the last four years, the formation of a strong political
opposition and combat fatigue of the Afghan and international forces after
almost two decades, are additional factors contributing to insecurity and
leading to increased confidence on the insurgents' side and decrease of the
legitimacy of the government.
Besides challenges on the national level,
Afghanistan still suffers from the interference of its neighbors, in
particular, Pakistan and Iran.
Once an ally of the United States, Pakistan
has obtained a more and more a counter-productive role with its active support
to the Taliban in Afghanistan.
For an extended period, the international
community did not want to accept Pakistan as the main spoiler of peace in
Afghanistan and the region. In contrast, the US continued to provide military
support to the Pakistan army to fight international terrorism. Pakistan's
establishment was very effective in playing the double role- being a partner
that fights and, at the same time, supports international terrorism - and
continued to proclaim itself not only as a supporter of the US-led war on
terror but also a victim of the insecurity in Afghanistan. This was believed to
be the reality, although the Afghan side continuously provided their
international partners with evidence of Pakistan's support to the Taliban in
Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden and Pakistan's denial of harboring him on
Pakistani soil is the best example indicating the country's real agenda for
Afghanistan.
Pakistan's policy of strategic depth linked
to the country's India-phobia on the one side and Afghanistan's very productive
and close ties with New Delhi are viewed as one of the main reasons for
Pakistan's violent interference in Afghanistan.
Moreover, the dispute over the Durand-Line
and trans boundary waters' issues are other important reasons for Islamabad's
support to the insurgents in Afghanistan. Pakistan wants Afghanistan to be a
vassal state under the direct control of its establishment. Looking at the
Afghan history, Pakistan should know that Afghans will never accept such a status,
but instead will always be ready to maintain balanced and friendly political
and economic relations with both- India and Pakistan. Although difficult to
believe at the moment, but a change in the mindset and actions of Pakistan's
establishment- the Army and Intelligence Services- will not only increase the
prospects of peace in Afghanistan but will also provide new opportunities in the
political and economic arena for Pakistan in the region.
Iran is another country with specific
interests in Afghanistan. The Islamic Republic has supported from the very
beginning Shia political parties and interfered through religious and cultural
agendas in the Afghan politics.
Transboundary waters' issues are another
issue between the two neighbors, bearing an enormous conflict potential if not
dealt with rationally. Afghanistan, as an upstream country, has two shared
basins with Iran- the Helmand and Harrirod river basins. For the Helmand river
basin, the two countries have a binding agreement signed in 1973. Considering
the power asymmetry between the two countries and the devastating war in
Afghanistan over the last four decades hindering a healthy path of development,
Iran is not only violating the existing conditions of the Helmand agreement but
is also ready to contemplate other options to impose its conditions on
Afghanistan. Last year, Farah province bordering Iran fell for a short period
into the hands of the Taliban. Afghan officials blamed Iran and said that the
Islamic Republic aims to obstruct major dam construction projects currently
under implementation.
Afghanistan's government indicate its
readiness to come to an agreement with its western neighbor, where the
interests of both countries are anticipated. Using Afghan refugees living in
Iran, impeding the construction of water dam projects, as stated by the Afghan
side, might be an efficient tool to weaken Afghanistan in the short term, but
will not lead to any substantial results for Iran in the long-term. Therefore,
it is of utmost importance that Iran pursues a sustainable and cooperative
mechanism, contemplating the benefits for both countries.
Economic Situation
Without ignoring the achievements in the
field of education, health, and freedom of speech, facilitated through generous
aid by the international community, Afghanistan is still far from economic
self-reliance. According to the World Bank, 39 percent of Afghans are poor, and
the poverty rate in rural areas increased within two years – from 2011/2012 to
2012/2013- by 14 percent. Male unemployment increased by three times since
2011/2012, as a result of deterioration of security and withdrawal of
international troops. During the last three years, thousands of young Afghans
left the country and claimed asylum in European countries. The main reason for
them to leave their homeland was the lack of prospects, due to unemployment and
insecurity.
Major infrastructure projects that are
deemed to be the main pillar for sustainable economic development cannot be
implemented due to the aforementioned security situation, combined with a lack
of financial means and required transparency. Additional to that, the absence
of qualified personnel within governmental institutions is another obstacle to
plan and manage these programs effectively. Afghanistan's Ministry Mines and
Petroleum estimates the country's mineral wealth at $ 3 trillion, but almost
none of the resources could be utilized up to now. Moreover, although endowed
with vast resources to generate electricity and establish a sustainable water
management system, the country still imports more than 75 percent of the
country's available electricity is imported from Central Asia and Iran and has
one of the lowest water storage capacities in the world.
The recent progress in the implementation
of regional power projects such as CASA1000, TAPI, and TAP are positive steps
towards the creation of interdependency through a benefit sharing approach;
however, it is still a long path until completion. In specific in the case of
the TAPI gas pipeline, there are still a bunch of financial and also political
issues to be clarified, before this important regional project can be completed.
Despite an increase in revenue collection
in the last four years, without a holistic policy and adequate development
projects with a realistic and affordable approach, it will be challenging to
achieve economic self-reliance. Air
corridors might be an effective short-term, but experts doubt the
sustainability of this costly approach. Without a realistic roadmap for the
country's economy, it will be challenging to achieve the proclaimed
self-reliance- a status, which bears enormous risks, causing serious
dissatisfaction within the society.
Achieving sustainable peace in Afghanistan-
Challenges, Opportunities and the way forward
Eighteen years after Bonn conference on
Afghanistan, the new US administration under the leadership of President Trump
has (a) realized the real role Pakistan was playing during the last two decades
and (b) the changing political climate in the region, with Russia and China as
active actors in the political arena.
The recent pressure by the United States
and the concerns of the two other giants- Russia and China- in regards to the
expansion of terroristic groups close to their sphere of influence/ border, has
forced Pakistan to bring at least some changes into their policy of supporting
the insurgency in Afghanistan. Russia's fear from ISIS infiltration into
Central Asia has diversified the Taliban's support chain, but also convinced
Russia to take a more pro-active role in the region in order to avoid the
deterioration of security in Central Asia. China worries the expansion of
extremist groups, which can jeopardize the country's national security in the
Xinjiang province and also affect China's ambitious economic agenda, in
particular, the 'One Belt, One Road' initiative.
It is a matter of fact that without a
change in US policy towards Pakistan and the geopolitical and geoeconomic
interests of Russia and China, the current negotiations with the Taliban would
not be possible. As a consequence of the mentioned change, Pakistan was forced
to convince the Taliban to start negotiations with the US government. Zalmay
Khalilzad, an Afghan-born US diplomat and influential critic of Pakistan's
policy towards Afghanistan, has been appointed as the US chief negotiator for
the peace talks with the Taliban. Several rounds of talks between the US and
the Taliban have been conducted in Doha until now, but no tangible results have
been achieved up to now.
An attempt to organize the first direct
Afghan talks between the Taliban and a joint delegation of Afghan government
and politicians in Doha, failed last month. The subsequent 'Loya Jirga' on
peace proposed the formation of a new joint delegation consisting of members of
the Afghan government, political leaders and parties. However, up to now, the
government was acting very hesitant and did not indicate any signs in regards
to its intention to form such a negotiation team.
After the first meeting with a delegation
of Afghan politicians led by the former President Karzai, the Taliban met two
weeks ago with almost the same delegation in Moscow. Russia facilitated the
talks on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of Afghan-Russian diplomatic relations. For the
first time, Mullah Abdul Ghani Berader, the deputy leader of the Taliban who
was held for a decade in custody by Pakistan, led the Taliban delegation in
Moscow.
During the meeting in Moscow, the Taliban
still insisted on the complete withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan,
before even thinking about a ceasefire and direct peace talks with the Afghan
government. Russia's foreign minister, Lavrov, who requested the withdrawal of
foreign troops from Afghanistan, supported this demand.
Another reason for the Taliban's denial to
negotiate with the Afghan government is the fear to delegitimize their
so-called "Jihad" by negotiating with a 'puppet government." Although
the Afghan ambassador to Russia and the head of the peace council, former
Vice-President Khalili, were present on the first the day in of the conference
in Moscow, the Taliban rejected them to be part of the negotiation team during
the upcoming talks with Afghan politicians.
Important topics, such as international
troops' withdrawal, ceasefire, women's rights, and the implementation of the
Islamic law, were discussed between the two delegations, without any
significant results. The only positive aspect of these talks was that both
sides agreed upon the continuation of the intra-Afghan negotiations in the
future.
Looking at the outcome of this round of
negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan delegation and also the
US-Taliban negotiations, it can be assumed that a peace agreement with the
Taliban will not be achieved soon. At the same time, continuous conferences and
meetings between the parties are the only way to keep the hope of peace alive.
However, it should be clear to all involved parties that meetings and talks
without a clear roadmap and defined goals bear the risk of stalemate or even
failure.
The Way Forward
The formation of a broad-based delegation,
which includes government's representatives, political leaders and parties,
equipped with the required authority to make decisions, is the only option for
conducting productive talks and achieving the set goals. Therefore, both sides
– the Afghan government and political leaders and parties- have to agree on a
clear mechanism and show the willingness that the national interests of
Afghanistan prevail by putting all personal and political difference aside. Continuation
of disunity weakens their position and jeopardizes the current opportunity for
peace and security in the country. The Taliban are aware of the disunity among
Afghan politicians in Kabul and are simply exploiting these weaknesses to
strengthening their position.
On the other side, the Taliban must also
understand that today's Afghanistan is not that of 2001. Afghans will not
accept a repressive government style and the exclusion of half of the
population- the Afghan women. The people in Afghanistan are aware of the
current difficulties within the society and shortcomings of the public
institutions, thus, will be ready to make compromises in order to achieve a
sustainable peace agreement. However, this is only possible if the Taliban also
indicate their readiness for compromise and agree upon direct talks with the Afghan
government.
A consequence of unnecessary prolongation
of the peace talks would result in the continuation of violence and the killing
of innocent Afghans.
Another critical aspect to be considered
refers to the anxiety of the people. Afghans fear that the United States might
agree upon withdrawal from Afghanistan, without the assurance that the
achievements of the last two decades are protected. The people of Afghanistan
are comparing the situation with that after the Soviet withdrawal and the
subsequent civil war that caused the death of thousands of Afghans and
destruction of the country's entire infrastructure. A consequence of the
international community's negligence was that creation of a safe haven for
terror groups such as Al-Qaida, resulting in horrible attacks of 11 September.
Only terror groups will benefit from a hasty withdrawal, which will have
enormous consequences for regional and global security. Besides the lessons
from the Soviet withdrawal, the US and its partners should also learn from the
devastating terror of the ISIS in Iraq and Syria that was among others a result
of a too early and unstructured withdrawal from Iraq.
Conclusion
It can be concluded that peace with the
Taliban is possible, but only if all involved Afghan and foreign stakeholders
are willing to draft and implement a roadmap that is acceptable to both sides.
A roadmap that not only leads to an
agreement but also (a) secures the achievements of the last two decades and (b)
supports Afghanistan to pave the way towards political stability and
sustainable economic development. The benefits of a peaceful and developed
Afghanistan are apparent if we look into the vast potentials for economic
cooperation in the region between Central and South Asia. This can be only
achieved if all regional and global players see their interest in a peaceful
and prosperous Afghanistan.
Besides the external factors, tensions
within Afghanistan will serve the interests of spoilers and weakens the
position of all Afghans. Therefore, the Afghan government and politicians
should act united and in the interest of the country and realize that only a
peaceful Afghanistan will protect their political interests. The Taliban should
also accept the new Afghanistan and pursue a solution that is reflecting the
interest of Afghans and not that of others. Peaceful co-existence and mutual
respect among Afghans is the only way to assure peace and development of the
country.
Afghanistan's international partner have to
commit their financial support, focusing on the development of the required
infrastructure and human resources that can pave the way to economic
self-reliance. Regional countries should also cooperate with Afghanistan and
support the realization of important regional projects. The creation of
interdependency is a useful tool to ensure peace and stability. Therefore, it
is of importance that political consensus is combined with joint economic
efforts in order to guarantee peace and stability in the broader region.
A failure of the talks with the Taliban
would not have only devastating consequences for Afghanistan and the region,
but also facilitate the infiltration of ISIS and other terror groups, a threat
to global security with enormous consequences for democracy and human rights- a
nightmare that should be avoided by all means.
Alias Wardak is a lecturer and PhD
Candidate at the University of Siegen and worked for more than eight years in
Afghanistan. He can be followed on Twitter: @AliasWardak
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