(MENAFN - Arab News) A NEW report paints a rather gloomy picture of post-Qaddafi Libya: fighting between tribes, ethnic groups and rival militia has accounted for instability at a local level; and flare-ups continue to occur in the country's hubs of Benghazi and Tripoli. This has made travel more dangerous and the risk of assets being damaged or looted greater.
Reports gathered by the UK-based risk analyst Maplecroft, point to "a noted increase in violent incidents" in recent weeks in both Tripoli and Benghazi. Also, serious clashes have in the meantime broken out in recent months in the west of the country around the Nafusa mountain areas and in the southeastern Kufra basin.
The proliferation of heavy and light weapons continues to undermine stability and the prevalence of unexploded ordinance (UXO) poses a risk to business operations when traveling in the country.
A report published in August 2012 by Harvard University's International Human Rights Clinic, described the country as being "awash in weapons, ranging from bullets and mortars to torpedoes and surface-to-air missiles". It also describes how much of the ordinance left over from the uprising is "often unsecured and unstable."
Given that there remains insufficient capacity to tackle the problem and government coordination still remains weak, the risk to the security of Libyans is described as "significant".
Moreover, many militias and individual Libyans are unwilling to part with their arms. As such, disputes can rapidly turn violent with the use of heavy weaponry. Such escalation poses a particularly high human security risk in more densely populated urban areas.
According to the report, concern persists that Libya's still embryonic security forces are ill equipped to tackle the variety of challenges they now face, making the security outlook for the country uncertain in the short to mid-term.
Libya's police do not have the capacity to patrol the streets, and the incidence of petty crime is on the rise. At the same time, security forces are likely to be challenged by militias who may be reluctant to cede to their authority. Although militias have in some cases been critical in keeping the peace and in areas such as Misrata helped restore order and helped challenge corruption in and around the ports, they nevertheless remain unaccountable.
There are multiple examples submitted by human rights organizations of militias contributing to instability and carrying out human rights abuses.
Equally, although the Libyan Army has played a key role in rooting out groups suspected of carrying out or planning bomb attacks and intervened in violent inter-communal disputes, much work needs to be done before it becomes a unified national army. In addition to the army there exists the Supreme Security Committees (SSC) and the Libyan Shield Forces (LSF), the former falling roughly under the auspices of the Ministry of Interior and the latter the Ministry of Defense.
Nevertheless, there are encouraging signs that tribal and community leaders are lending their support to the army and the fact that the July National Assembly elections - which saw some 13,000 soldiers and tens of thousands of security personnel successfully organized - were carried out peacefully is a positive sign.
According to the report, recent attacks against Western targets in the city of Benghazi are nevertheless a clear cause for concern, although it is too early to tell whether this marks the beginning of a sustained campaign of attacks against 'Western' targets. Incidents include the US diplomatic mission office being attacked with a homemade bomb on June 5 in response to the killing of al-Qaeda leader Abu Yahya Al-Libi (a Libyan citizen) in Pakistan.
A convoy carrying the British ambassador to Libya was also hit by a rocket propelled grenade on June 11. Two attacks against the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) - with the latest occurring on the May 22 - have also taken place in Benghazi. However, attacks against the IRC have not been limited to Benghazi and have also taken place in Misrata.
Following the latest rocket and grenade attack on Aug. 5, 2012 - though none were harmed - the IRC declared that it is suspending operations in Benghazi and Misrata.
The recent string of kidnappings, small bomb explosions, grenade attacks and discovery of explosive devices in Benghazi underscore the dangers inherent to traveling to this part of the country at present, says the report.
For instance, on July 29 a large bomb was discovered and diffused near the Tibesti Hotel - a hotel popular with visiting foreign dignitaries and businessmen.
On July 31, gunmen kidnapped a seven-member delegation of individuals from the Iranian Red Crescent who were heading to the Tibesti. Although alarming, there have been a string of bomb discoveries recently and locals claim that they were not detonated on purpose. As such it is widely thought the intention is to provoke fear and undermine security forces, rather than to carry out mass casualty attacks.
Nevertheless, attacks witnessed in recent months against members of the security forces and judiciary clearly demonstrate the existence of several armed militant group willing and able to carry out attacks. Recent incidents include several assassinations (in addition to unsuccessful attempts) against leaders within the security forces, the storming of Kowaifiyah prison on July 31, 2012 which freed the suspected killer of former rebel leader Abdel-Fattah Younis and several incidents involving small arms fire and grenades near security buildings. The up tick in violence has led residents of Benghazi to take to the streets in protest, demanding that security improve and the militia demobilize.
In the meantime, high-profile assassinations remain a key source of instability and exacerbate security concerns. Historic rivalries and jockeying for power is claimed to be behind a string of assassinations, with recent cases including a candidate for the Constituent Assembly, Khaled Abu Salah, who was assassinated near the oasis town of Ubari in the south-west of the country on May 15, 2012.
Then on May 26 Head of the Military Council for the Western Region Mukhtar Fernana survived an attempt on his life. Both incidents come shortly following the killing of former military governor of Tripoli Gen. Albarrani Shkal on May 2, 2012 in an attack claimed by the pro-Qaddafi "Green Resistance" militia.
The multiplicity of armed groups with various and competing agendas in Benghazi makes determining the motives behind the attacks difficult. However, inter-militia rivalries and the presence of dissident pro-Qaddafi supporters seeking revenge against defectors are plausible causes. Islamist groups are known to have a "hit list" of 106 individuals who were linked to Qaddafi's regime and further such attacks are therefore likely.
A clear precedent was set with the killing of former Qaddafi loyalist turned rebel military commander Abdel-Fattah Younis in July 2011. On June 22, 2012, the judge investigating the death of Younis was himself assassinated in Benghazi. Claims by the Libyan Observatory for Human Rights that the NTC itself was behind the killing would prove highly damaging if proved to be true. More recently, on July 28, 2012, former military intelligence officer Col.
Suleiman Buzraidah was killed en route to a mosque in Benghazi, with commander of the Libyan ground forces General Khalifa Hafter narrowly surviving an attack on his life only a day later. This was most likely part of a string of 'revenge' attacks led by Islamist militias, with fingers pointing towards the Abu Salim Martyrs' Brigade.
Long-standing disputes over land, family feuds and latent inter Arab/ Berber communal tensions have now become meshed with the corrosive issue of which side various tribes and towns took during the revolution, thereby locking communities into cycles of violence.
Indeed, the rivalry between the Zintani and Mashashia long precede the uprising and centres on issues such as land disputes and the perception that the Mashashia benefitted from Qaddafi's patronage and that they supported the former dictator during the revolution.
Whilst the situation had, for a while, been brought under control on Aug. 5, 2012, armed clashes left a further seven people dead following a heated argument in a market that had escalated out of control. As such, a climate of insecurity prevails in some locations and outbreaks of violence are likely to occur in an unpredictable and spontaneous fashion.
