(MENAFN- Gulf Times) Spare a thought for Tokyo's bulls. Abandoned, distracted by scandal, and now they're watching $200bn wiped from stock values by American trade measures they thought they could avoid.
They were nursing the biggest losses in global markets yesterday, down 4.5% on the Nikkei 225 Stock Average and 3.6% on the Topix Index. Unlike stocks in Hong Kong or the US, theirs are now squarely below their worst level of February, down more than 8% for the year and in the grip of a strengthening currency.
Nothing new, for anyone who's traded here.
'Japan is a cyclical equity market, said Yoshinori Shigemi, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management Japan. 'When risk is off, Japan gets offloaded first.
While Trump's latest and loudest protectionist blow fell on China, hopes that Japan will be spared from steel and aluminium levies also took a hit Thursday as the country wasn't on a list of exempted countries given by US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer in Senate testimony.
The selloff is dashing hopes of those who thought signs of an improving economy would stem losses that have now swelled to almost 15% since January 23. yesterday's plunge came the same day a key inflation gauge ticked up, putting the Bank of Japan halfway to its goal of 2%.
As is often the case, part of the problem is foreign investors. They've yanked nearly $50bn from futures on the Topix and Nikkei 225 this year. Another ¥2tn ($19bn) has fled cash equities this year through to March 9, according to data from the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
As if that wasn't enough. The yen has spiralled to a 16-month high against the dollar, always a factor in chasing foreigners out. Apart from being a barometer of risk, strength in the currency erodes corporate profits at export-driven Japan.
Right now, the broader Topix, whose direction is often dictated by foreign investors who account for roughly a third of the market, is on track for its worst performance since 2011. It's fallen below its 200-day moving average for the first time in more than a year, a sign that 'something wrong is going on, Hiroshi Matsumoto, head of Japan investment at Pictet Asset Management, said.
Pictet earlier this year downgraded its global equity outlook to neutral, citing a bearish view for US equities. But it stayed positive on Japan, betting the economy, earnings and low valuations would cushion global influences.
Matsumoto is one of many bulls in the Japanese market who have put their faith in economic fundamentals. He's been perplexed by everything from Trump's protectionist rhetoric to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's alleged link to a controversial government land sale to a school.
'I don't want to overreact. But, I don't want to underestimate the impact, either, Matsumoto said, referring to the latest development on Trump's vow to slap China with a $50bn tariff. 'It's difficult.
It's all starting to dent sentiment for Japan, where bears had previously been hard to find. While overweight the country on average, that will change if political risk rises, a fund manager survey published by Bank of America Merrill Lynch showed. Credit Suisse earlier this month downgraded its outlook on Japanese equities to benchmark, calling the market 'most cyclical of the global market. Matsumoto isn't giving up.
'Key is in how strong or weak earnings guidances are from companies, he said. 'If the management says there's no need to worry, even if the currency rises to ¥100 per-dollar levels, that they can make profits next year; if we hear such an optimistic outlook, the market can have more confidence.
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