Wage data should make the Fed cautious


(MENAFN- Asia Times)

Conjectures about the unexpectedly (for the US Federal Reserve) slow rate of wage gains have centered on a number of demographic changes, such as 1) the availability of a large pool of workers willing to trade off lower pay for flexible hours, and 2) increasing risk aversion among the workforce due to aging, post-crisis psychology or other factors.

The Atlanta Fed wage data are at least consistent with these conjectures.

As the above chart shows, wage gains for female workers have been far more modest than the average. At just 2.7% year-on-year, they barely equal the headline CPI rate of increase. Female workers are more likely to trade off flexible hours for lower pay.

There is a substantial and growing discrepancy between pay increases for job switchers and job stayers. It's noteworthy that the YOY rate of pay increases has fallen to just 2.4%. That doesn't prove the risk-aversion thesis, to be sure, but it is consistent with risk aversion.

The daily<> Must-reads from across Asia - directly to your inbox <> <> <> <> Asia Unhedged Fed policy Fed rate hikes Federal Reserve interest rates Jerome Powell wage growth Comments

MENAFN1903201801590000ID1096618189


Legal Disclaimer:
MENAFN provides the information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.