(MENAFNEditorial)
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Last week, spot gold prices declined by 2.5% while MCX gold prices declined by 3 percent. Gold prices declined to a four month low in the past week on optimism about passage of tax overhaul in the US. Although, the investment demand has seen uptick in the recent months with global holdings of gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETF) rising by 9.1 tonnes to 2,357 tonnes in November, with the net inflows coming entirely from Europe, gold prices are moving lower on the assumption that rate hike in the FOMC meeting scheduled on 13-14th December will be as per market expectations. Besides, India's gold imports in November nearly halved from a year ago as a rise in the price of the yellow metal curbed retail buying for weddings in turn lower prices for gold.
Spot silver prices declined 3.6 percent to close at $15.8 per ounce in line with decline in gold prices coupled with stronger dollar index. Weak base metals pack also exerted downside pressure on the metal. ON the MCX, silver prices declined 2.3 percent to close at Rs.37057 per kg
SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchanget raded fund, said its holdings stood at 842.81 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.
Holdings of the largest silverbacked exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's iShares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 10088.59 up 46.96 tonnes, from previous business day.
✍ BASE METAL
Copper prices witnessed their worst one day fall as passage of US tax bill by both houses increased bets of reform sooner than expected, thereby boosting DX to highest since 2nd Oct17. Also, sudden surge of more than 5 percent in LME warehouses in a day led to investors doubts regarding market tightness. However, Chinese imports data came to the rescue as arrivals of unwrought copper surged in November17 to 470,000 tonnes, 42.3 percent from 330,000 tonnes in October17 and up 23.7 percent from 380,000 tonnes in November16 as stringent output curbs in the mainland nation boosted shipments of overseas metal.
Base metals traded mostly lower last week as investors take profit off the table cashing in gains for most of the years rally. Copper, Nickel, Aluminium, Lead have all fallen by more than 3 percent in the past week. MCX base metals traded lower in line with international trends.
✍ ENERGY
WTI and MCX oil prices traded lower last week by 3 percent respectively on profit booking at higher levels. Sharp rise in U.S. inventories of refined fuel suggested demand may be flagging, while U.S. crude production hit another weekly record.
Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, will supply full contractual volumes of crude to a North Asian refiner in January, unchanged from the previous month, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said on Monday.
Kuwait's oil minister Essam alMarzouq said on Sunday that OPEC and other oil producers will study before June the possibility of an exit strategy from the global oil supply-cut agreement.
President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Russia was ready to sell gas to Saudi Arabia after he launched the first loading of liquefied natural gas (LNG) at the Novatek-led Yamal LNG project in the Arctic.
MCX TECHNICAL VIEW
✍ COPPER
In this week, Copper prices will continue to be under pressure as global investors will closely watch FOMC and ECB monetary policy meeting for cues on future course. Also, China industrial production and retail sales are due on 14th Dec17. We expect copper prices to fall even in todays session, international markets are trading marginally higher by 0.11 percent at $6578.50 per tonne.
SELL COPPER FEB BELOW 423 TGT 413 SL 428
✍ ZINC
The primary trend is bearish on daily basis as displayed. As we can see the previous chart market price on its important support level and we are expecting market can break it support level. Its facing near resistance level at Rs. 202 and support level at Rs. 198.50 .Below the support level we can see the next target near of Rs. 196 and Rs. 195. Investors can follow the sell on higher level strategy for intra day to mid term basis. Apart from this above the resistance level could see a test of level 205.
SELL ZINC DEC BELOW 198.50 TGT 195.80 SL 200.10
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
✍ SPICE COMPLEX
Turmeric Apr futures closed lower on fresh selling by the Market Participants on expectation of good supplies from the new season. The supplies will be higher due to government auctions and lower exports data. The export of turmeric is down by 15.2% to 56,900 tonnes for the first 6 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years exports. The arrivals have been higher during first 10 days in December this year to 10,130 tonnes compared to 3,372 tonnes last year same month according to Agmarknet data.
NCDEX Jan Jeera falls on Friday on fresh selling initiated by the market participants at higher levels coupled with encouraging jeera sowing progress in Gujarat. In Gujarat, jeera acreage up by 50% to 2.7 lakh ha this year compared to 1.8 lakh ha last year as on 4 th Dec. As per government data, Jeera exports during first six month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Sep) is 77,827 tonnes, up 8.4% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in Sep increase 110% on year to 14,742 tn. Jeera arrivals for the first 10 days of Dec down by 60% to 906.7 tonnes on year due to tight supplies and lower stocks
✍ OILSEED COMPLEX
Mustard Jan futures continue to close lower for 5th consecutive day on Friday due to steady physical demand and reports of higher inventories with the traders and farmers. According to Mustard Oil Producers Association of India, mustard stock with Farmers & Processors as on 30th Nov17 was at 13 lakh tonnes. Mills across the country crushed 475,000 tn of the oilseed in November, up nearly 6% on month. As per rabi sowing report from the government, the acreage of mustard, another major rabi crop, was at 59 lakh ha, down from 64 lakh ha a year ago. Rajasthan is the largest mustard growing state but the sowing pace is slower than last year at 20.6 lakh ha Vs 27.4 lakh ha.
NCDEX Soybean futures closed lower for the second consecutive day on Friday mainly on fresh selling initiated by the market participants tracking spot prices. However, the trend looks positive due to reports of good physical demand as Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) increased its estimates of meal exports for 2017/18.
Moreover, earlier government has increased export incentives by 2% for all meals. According to SOPA, Soymeal exports from the country in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) are seen rising to around 20 lakh tn from previous estimate of 15 lakh tn due to a recent rise in export incentives. India's soymeal exports during November surged to 207,630 tn from 97,750 tn a year ago. For Apr-Nov, exports of soymeal were estimated at 768,981 tn compared with 204,860 tn a year ago as per SEA monthly report. US Soybean settled 2-1/4 cents lower at $9.89-3/4 a bushel dropped 0.4 percent last week after rising in the previous four weeks mainly on improved weather conditions in Brazil and encouraging exports numbers
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