(MENAFN- DailyFX) What's inside:
One-day implied volatility for rises to 17.11%, 1-stdev range of 11896-12110 One-day IV for bumps up to 18.18%, 1-stdev range of 11027-11239 announcement set for 14:00 GMT time The importance of trading psychology can't be understated. Check out this beginner's guide .
In the following table, you'll find levels of implied volatility (IV) for major USD-pairs looking out over the next one-day and one-week time-frames. Using these levels, we've derived the range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation for specified periods. Statistically speaking, there is a 68% probability that price will remain within the lower and upper-bounds.
EURUSD options implied volatility rises to 17.11%, implies a 1-stdev range of 11896-12110
At 14:00 GMT time, the FOMC will announce its decision on rates, which are expected to remain unchanged. The market's focus will be on the Fed's plans with its , along with the central bank's outlook towards future rate hikes. , join Chief Currency Strategist John Kicklighter at 13:45 GMT.
Based on implied volatility there is a 68% probability that the will close somewhere between 11896 and 12110. A pretty sizable range. The latter level if seen could kick off the start of a ‘head-and-shoulders' pattern we . But we will still need to see a break of the 11825 area (which the one-week projected low aligns with) and the April trend-line before becoming overly bearish. On the top-side, should we see the upper threshold met or exceeded, it would mean a breakout for EURUSD is underway and . The one-week projected high is at 12163. The one-day levels are in close proximity to the one-week expected range high/low, highlighting the fact that the market pricing in much of the next week's volatility into the outcome of today's meeting.
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EURUSD: Daily
USDJPY options implied volatility rises to 18.18%, points to a 1-stdev range of 11027-11239
The projected daily range-low at 11027 is of interest given it roughly aligns with support going back to March. Should we see a move down to that point buying interest may show up. Looking higher, the 11239-projected daily high is not far above the 200-day moving average, possibly undercutting further intra-day momentum. The one-week high is of interest as it aligns well with the trend-line running down off the December high. A move to that level may stall as intermediate-term resistance comes into play.
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USDJPY: Daily
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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