Jordan- Why French elections should matter to Arabs


(MENAFN- Jordan Times) It is a new era for French politics following the outcome of the first round of presidential elections on Sunday, which, as most polls had predicted, was won by independent centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron, followed by far right leader Marine Le Pen.

They will face each other in the May 7 run-off.

By the end of the day, the progressive but inexperienced Macron with an optimistic message had clinched more than 23 per cent of the votes.

Le Pen offered a populist programme, winning over 21 per cent of the votes; an important gain, but below her expectations.

But what was especially surprising was the poor performance of Socialist Party candidate Benoit Hamon, who got only 6.2 per cent of the votes, putting him in fifth place behind far left and election sensation Jean-Luc Mélenchon and scandal-ridden conservative François Fillon.

This was an important vote for France, Europe and by extension the rest of the world. That was reflected in the nearly 80 per cent voter turnout on Sunday.

Following last year's shocking Brexit referendum and Donald Trump's historic victory in the US, all eyes had turned to France in what became an important bellwether poll.

Le Pen's ultra-nationalist National Front (FN) has been gaining ground in local elections since she took over from her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, in 2012.

She exploited the prevailing political conditions to her favour.

Certainly, the dipping popularity of President François Hollande and the ruling Socialist Party helped boost her chances among disenchanted voters. But her path to victory would have been easier if it had not been for a relative newcomer, the young and charismatic Macron, 39, whose one-year-old movement 'En Marche!' provided a much-needed alternative to the two traditional mainstream parties, Socialist and Republican.

His vibrant campaign motivated voters, especially the youth, much like Barack Obama's 2008 endeavour which was seen as a game changer at the time.

Macron is the favourite to win the run-off vote and the presidency since Socialist and Republican candidates have now lined up behind him.

But numbers will matter.

According to a poll taken after the vote, he is expected to win roughly 62 per cent to Le Pen's 38 per cent.

For the latter, and despite her expected loss, it will usher in the FN as a mainstream party and a relevant player in French politics.

She has already gained a million additional voters on Sunday because she softened up the party's racist image, while refusing to compromise on her anti-immigration, anti-EU and anti-globalisation platform.

Still, Macron's mission as president will not be easy. He has no party and soon after his expected victory he will face a tougher test in the form of the June legislative elections.

For observers, these elections will provide the canvass for a new political landscape, not only for the beleaguered Socialist Party and the wounded Gaullist Republican Party, but also for Macron, who promised to field new faces to contest every seat in every district.

Without a majority in the National Assembly, Macron's vows to change France, reform the EU and deliver on his economic promises will be difficult to fulfil.

With almost 10 per cent unemployment rate and a struggling economy, his vague economic plan will face difficulties.

On the other hand, as the socialists scurry to find ways to salvage their party and as the conservatives seek a new leadership, Le Pen will be patiently biding her time.

For her the struggle is not over.

Her message has resonated with millions of voters and if Macron's presidency stumbles, especially as he attempts to overreach, then her political ambitions — she is only 49 — will remain valid.

And while Macron's pro-EU and reformist messages won the day, the challenges are daunting.

France is a major partner in the 28-member European Union, but it is also vulnerable and divided when it comes to dealing with the contentious issues of its bulging bureaucracy, controversial tax system, open borders, immigration and homegrown jihadist terror.

Such critical issues will haunt French politicians and voters for some time to come.

While French voters have opted for a safer middle course, for now, Europe still faces crucial tests ahead, especially with Germany's own elections slated for later this year.

Why do we, Arabs, care?

Because we live in an interconnected world and our troubled region depends on a stable and confident Europe to play its role as a counterbalance in a much polarised global environment.

Many enlightened Arabs view European ideals of pluralism, secularism and multiculturalism as their own, and acknowledge the historic and cultural bonds that tie our part of the world to the old continent.

France, in particular, has deep roots in the MENA region and is at the forefront in the war against religious extremism and rogue movements.

The French Revolution's principles have become universal and in a torn Arab world that is struggling to find its identity and a path out of the current mayhem, a democratic, tolerant and open France can provide much-needed inspiration.

The writer is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.

MENAFN2504201700280000ID1095419761


Legal Disclaimer:
MENAFN provides the information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.