Philippines faces crossroads in May presidential elections
(MENAFN- Asia Times) The candidates
Rise of strongmen
Duterte a political outsider par excellence is in an extremely dominant position in the presidential race. He has promised to install a decisive single-minded type of leadership into office though has barely elaborated on the specifics of his policy agenda. Whether in front of market vendors or facing the business elite Duterte has presented relatively identical sets of speeches emphasizing his decades-long battle against crime drugs and corruption in Davao the economic powerhouse of southern Philippines.
With a penchant for expletives and provocative statements he has consistently placed himself at the center of media discourse often inviting comparisons with the real estate mogul Donald Trump who has quite similarly upended the American political landscape. Recently Duterte was on international headlines due to a highly controversial rape joke which beckoned global condemnations including by the Australian and American embassies.
In response Duterte went so far as to threaten to sever relations with both countries if elected while telling the ambassadors of both countries to 'shut their mouths' and not interfere in the election campaign. Rarely has any Filipino politician even dared to so brazenly challenge representatives of stalwart allies such as America a beloved former colonizer which is deeply popular among Filipinos. Surely Duterte displayed in the eyes of some 'independence' vis-a-vis Western powers. Similar to Narendra Modi in India and Prabowo Subianto in Indonesia Duterte has with considerable success tapped into an emerging “democratic fatigue”among ordinary citizens who yearn for effective governance and lament the seeming paralysis of democratically-elected governments in recent decades.
Ferdinand 'Bong Bong' Marcos Jr.
After all despite emerging as one of Asia's fastest growing economies in recent years the Philippines still suffers from high levels of poverty and underemployment with rule of law still an elusive aspiration. In the eyes of many the Aquino administration has been a major failure in terms of among others infrastructure development and creation of an efficient public transpiration system.
Though more polished in his manners Marcos Jr. who has attended both Oxford University and Wharton has similarly promised a new brand of leadership anchored by discipline and decisiveness. Seemingly unapologetic about his father's destructive legacy Marcos even dared to claim quite astonishingly that the late dictator would have turned the Philippines into a “Singapore” if not for the 1986 'People Power' revolution that ushered in democracy.
If victorious the Duterte-Marcos tandem is expected to bring about changes to the country's domestic political landscape. Leading Philippine experts have warned about the potential emergence of neo-authoritarianism in the country with potentially unfavorable consequences for basic civil liberties.
A new 'New Order'
To be fair Marcos Jr. has never espoused martial law or return to dictatorship. The more flamboyant Duterte however has threatened to abolish the Philippine congress while fondly suggesting the prospect of 'dictatorship.' Yet it is far from clear whether he is serious or just playfully jesting. But clearly some people have been deeply alarmed by the tough-talking mayor.
Duterte
The Economist a leading financial newspaper has lashed out at the prospect of a Duterte presidency warning about the impending evisceration of recent macro-economic gains. The Philippine peso has been hit hard in recent weeks portending potential capital flight in coming months. Filipino experts such as Randy David are warning about the potential rise of Philippine-style fascism. Investors are jittery; the media is on the edge while intellectuals are scrambling to understand the unexpected turn of events in Philippine elections.
Many others however are adamant that Duterte's brash statements are mostly just an election gimmick meant to rally disgruntled voters. They see him as the truly authentic candidate fighting against the Philippine oligarchy which has co-opted its democratic institutions. Both Duterte and Marcos who haven't shown much interest in Manila's arbitration case against Beijing have also signaled their willingness to revisit the Philippines' current policy towards China.
They're both open to direct dialogue and even joint development agreements with China. Recently Duterte went so far stating that if China will “build me a train around Mindanao build me train from Manila to Bicol ... build me a train [going to] Batangas for the six years that I’ll be president I’ll shut up [on the sovereignty disputes].” All of these statements are of course music to the ear of Beijing which is expecting a more friendly Manila in coming months.
The elections of course could take an unexpected turn in coming days with Duterte who overcame the “rape joke” fallout unscathed currently facing accusations of not being honest about his wealth. Aquino's favored candidate Interior Secretary Manuel 'Mar' Roxas a technocrat who is now tied at second in the race is beginning to mobilize broader support by presenting himself as a protector of Philippine democracy. Roxas' running-mate Leni Robredo a progressive Congressman with an impeccable track record in public service is presenting a stiffer challenge to Marcos.
It is highly likely that the elections could end up as a showdown between the strongman 'iron fist' Duterte-Marcos tandem vs. the 'straight path' reformist Roxas-Robredo tandem. In a ridiculously problematic single-round first-past-the-post system the candidates only need to garner the most number of votes in the race raising the potential of “minority leaders” in coming months. The fate of the Philippines hangs in the balance.
Richard Javad Heydarian is a political science professor at De La Salle University Philippines and the author of 'Asia's New Battlefield: US China and the Struggle for Western Pacific' (Zed London).
The opinions expressed in this column are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the view of Asia Times.
(Copyright 2016 Asia Times Holdings Limited a duly registered Hong Kong company. All rights reserved. Please contact us about sales syndication and republishing.)