(MENAFNEditorial) Shaping up to be one of the most brutal conflicts yet to be seen in the Middle East's modern history, the crisis in Iraq has taken global centre stage and is showing no signs of winding down. During a panel discussion recently organised by the Capital Club, Dubai's premier private city club and member of the ENSHAA group of companies, a top-tier panel of experts to address these questions took a closer look at the complexity of the situation in Iraq and the possible solutions – if any – that could offer some form of resolution.
Moderated by Gulf News Editor-at-Large Francis Matthew, the panel featured Robin Mills, Head of Consulting at Manaar Energy Consulting; Jaafar Altaie, Managing Director at Manaar Energy Consulting; and Ali Khedery, Chairman and CEO of Dragoman Partners.
Looking at the role that oil has played in the crisis in Iraq, Robin Mills remarked, "Iraq is an extremely oil rich country in which none of that resource is being transformed into wealth or the development of an acceptable standard of living for its citizens. This is both the outcome of the dysfunctionality of the Iraqi government and the cause of it. Obviously when there is no national development being generated through oil, it leads to some very tricky sectarian politics where people fall back on sect or tribe, and where these politics become a competition for resources rather than working towards creating the functional and sustainable economy and the national development that goes with that which is needed for the country to move forward."
Mills went on to comment on how the situation in Iraq is in fact affecting the region's oil industry, "It's quite interesting to see how little the escalating situation in Iraq has in fact affected the oil industry, and how little the global industry has reacted to these very, very dramatic events. For instance at the point when Mosul fell, we saw the oil price go up by around two dollars, which is hardly a reaction. And we have just seen the Brent oil price fall under a hundred dollars a barrel for the first time since last year. This is despite everything that is happening in Iraq and despite the other major crisis currently going on between Russia and the Ukraine. It really is quite remarkable how sanguine the markets are – the reigning sentiment seems to be that these events will not affect oil supplies significantly. It would appear that the markets have moved past their initial panic and come to the conclusion that ISIS is not going to take Baghdad or capture the major oil fields of Iraq."
Going deeper into the origins of ISIS, the phenomenon that lies at the heart of the violence currently seen in Iraq, Ali Khedery commented, "To understand where we are with ISIS today and where we are going, we have to understand its root causes, which in essence boils down to Bashar al-Assad's misrule in Damascus and Nouri al-Maliki's misrule in Baghdad over the past four years. What we are seeing now, in very simple terms, is the disenfranchisement and disillusionment of about twenty to twenty-five million Sunni Arabs in Syria and Iraq. It is a frequent human phenomenon that whenever you have populations that are displaced or that have become desperate, they eventually become radicalised. And unfortunately, as has been demonstrated on numerous occasions in modern history, radicals often become militant."
Further expounding on the reasons behind the widespread militancy that is currently found in Iraq, Khedery went on to remark that due to the failure of the governments in Baghdad and Damascus, the sense of national identity has begun to break down in both Syria and Iraq, resulting in many people now holding to tribal identities, ethnic identities, or religious identities, which is further stoking the fires of sectarianism and opposition. Extrapolating about what might happen in the coming period, Mills remarked, "The question we now face is will Haider al-Abadi be able to turn a new page, in the way that say Nelson Mandela did in South Africa, and embrace truth and reconciliation measures as opposed to further demarcation and division. If the various opposing factions can find some form of common ground – a shared vision to work towards rather – then there is every chance that Iraq could stabilise. Unfortunately, what we are more likely to see is that these entrenched sectarian divisions will continue, which means that ISIS is here to stay for the foreseeable future."
Echoing Khedery' sentiment Jaafar Altaie emphasised that the problems in Iraq are not the result of recent events. He went on to state that the situation is being further complicated by the large number of parties that are involved in the crisis, whether directly or indirectly. "ISIS is not a new phenomenon; it is the result of mismanagement across the board, both in the East and the West, which is why it has become extremely difficult to fight because everyone is in effect involved in it. It has become a rejection of moderate institution; a rejection of the West and years of mismanagement in Iraq. Many people point to corruption as one of the biggest problems in Iraq, yet to my mind the mismanagement in Iraq is far worse. Because of this, and the lack of a true vision for Iraq, ISIS and extremism is definitely something that is here to stay for the foreseeable future."
When asked about possible military action, he was also quick to voice caution, remarking, "The NATO Oil Summit promised, or implied a possible military strategy to deal with ISIS. The danger here is that, more often than not, when you fight fire with fire, the result is more fire. For a true resolution a political strategy is needed; that political strategy needs an economic component and that component is the energy sector, because that is Iraq's engine. Without a strategy to build a sustainable energy sector and economy, the roots that created ISIS remain. The irony is that it is the energy sector that is also the lifeblood of ISIS. At this point in time ISIS is reaping far more benefit from Iraq's energy sector than the average Iraqi and as long as this remains the case, stability in Iraq simply isn't possible."
Exploring how the ISIS issue could possibly be resolved, Ali Khedery emphasised that Isis is not a single entity as such, but rather more something in the line of a 'marriage of inconvenience'. He remarked, "ISIS is a reaction to the dysfunctionality of Iraq, comprised of a pyramid structure in which approximately ninety per cent could become reconciled if the ultra militant and extremist ten per cent was neutralised." He also pointed out that part of the problems in dealing with the various factions arise from the common misconceptions that surround who and what ISIS is. "Unfortunately the West has for the greater part confused all of the different groups as one entity, when in reality it is that top ten per cent that really require some form of military strategy to deal with. The solution therefore must include bringing some of the more moderate factions within the reconcilable ninety per cent into the Iraqi government, which considering the track record of efforts along these lines will be very difficult to do. The question at this point in time is whether or not these possibly reconcilable factions will be able to bring themselves to trust any promises made by the US or other regional allies in light of the many occasions in which promises were made in the past and ultimately not been delivered upon," Khedery stated.
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